Before Galwan standoff, Sino-Indian relations were one of the least discussed topics in India and several foreign policy experts often touted that two Asian Giants will never go to war due to a tremendous amount of trade between two nations. This lot included both Hawks in MEA as well as Bull of Dalal Street (Indian share market) who considered Pakistan sponsored terrorism as biggest threat to the Indian state and often predicted a rosy picture which now stands shattered with Chinese barbarism in Doklam.
This strategic miscalculation led to UPA approving an elaborate plan where size of Indian Army was reduced while new CAPF battalions were raised. The military tried to sound it however, its voice never reached PMO in UPA era who were busy in imagining fictious coup plans. Military deals were delayed due to variety of reasons and one like MMRCA or Rafael deal was delated from 2007 to a point wherein a newly elected PM Modi signed it as emergency deal in 2015.
Thankfully for India and much to dislike of Pakistan and China, Narendra Modi government rewrote the Nehruvian rulebooks and threw self-restraint as shown at the time of Mumbai Attacks (26/11), out of window. Modi government went on to stage three surgical strikes first in Myanmar, then to avenge Uri Attack and finally Balakot airstrike to avenge Pulwama attack. This coupled with absolute majority and boldness of revocation of Article 370 with creation of Union Territory of Ladakh bewildered Pakistan and surprised China.
Advent of COVID-19 posed twofold challenge for China, first was avoiding blame for fathering the virus and second was to deter other world governments from taking any punitive actions or imposing costs on China for COVID-19. Thus, Chinese choose to Indian Borders for a showdown as earlier ploys of bringing up either Taiwan or South China Sea met with fierce response from USA and its allies i.e. Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Chinese were wise enough not to retest Doklam area where in 2017, PLA was forced to move back after 73-day long standoff with Indian Army on Sino-Bhutan borders. They carefully choose Ladakh as they had better road access and notion of moral victory in 1962 Sino-Indian war.
Here, Chinese suddenly moved in two Brigades (Two PLA Regiments) consisting 6000 PLA troops to three points in eastern Ladakh. The initial aim was most likely to show aggression at three places and settle with gains at all three or at least on one which as per current situation was most likely Galwan area.
Chinese were careful enough to establish Sun Tzu style deception that as result of successful Corps Commander level talks, PLA was wishing to disengage by the evening of 15 Jun 2020. However, now latest US Intelligence Reports suggest that at the same time General Zhao Zongqi, Chief of Chinese Western Theater Command opposite India ordered his soldiers to “teach India a lesson.”
General Zhao Zongqi soldiers prepared a trap by setting a camp which was routed by Indian Soldiers of Bihar Regiment under Colonel Suresh Babu, who were then attacked by Chinese Soldiers using wire wrapped batons, nail studded iron bars and other primitive means. The Indian troops were sober until their Commanding Officer Colonel Suresh Babu was not killed by Chinese assassin squads. After, Colonel Suresh Babu fell, all hell broke loose on Chinese Troops as Indian killed more than 43 PLA Troops at loss of 20 Indian Soldiers. Such gallant was the battle that Indian Troops despite their lesser numbers not only took over Chinese weapons but also boke necks of several chinse soldiers in a stone age fight that was so brutal that PLA Troops ran away leaving their dead and Indian held the clash point.
Surely, the raw Indian courage produced a result that sent chills down the spine of PLA and astonished Chinese State which has refused to disclose PLA casualties due to fear of backlash. The Chinse State run Media Global Times has changed several versions and still spreading propaganda. Thus, one can say with conviction things did not went well for Chinese.
What is more surprising and welcome fall out of this standoff is the fact it has brought to fore the issue of Chinse Trade Deficit and need to curb Chinese imports which has now fascinated Indian masses. This will have a long impact, as we have seen hoardings coming up in various parts of India saying, “We don’t cell Chinese Stuff”. Believe me, last thing China wants to test is Boycott by Indians as last time we tried it was in our freedom struggle and India overthrew biggest empire of the world – Might British Raj.
Moreover, India has been served a stern reminder that it can trust neither Pakistan nor China and only answer to this threat is having a world class armed forces with best weapons which can guard India against Chinese adventurism. Thus, the only far reaching impact of Galwan is that China has woken up the sleeping Tiger, India to a Chinese threat.